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Oil and Gas Prices, Ready to More, Much More?

Did you think the inflation-adjusted record high of oil and gas prices last September in the wake of Hurricane Katrina was just a blip on the radar? If so, you’re in for a very rude awakening. Listed immediately below are some very compelling reasons why this is the case.

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, car ownership was virtually non-existent in China. China’s roads, once synonymous with bikepacking, are experiencing an explosion in car traffic as the country’s growing consumer class. Last year, car sales in China exceeded 5 million units. Today, China is the fastest growing car market in the world. However, even with the recent increase in car ownership in China, the market remains virtually untapped. Currently, it is estimated that well under two percent of China’s population, 1.3 billion people, own a car, but due to cheaper models and a growing used car market, the number of car owners in China is steadily increasing.

The rate of decline in oil production, sometimes called the Hubbert production curve or peak oil, has been much steeper than expected in several major global oil fields. The UK, for example, has now become a net importer of crude oil and its production is falling rapidly. Currently, UK crude oil production is below 2 million barrels per day and looks set to reach an absolute peak of 2.9 million barrels in 2000.

There could be a shortage of unleaded gas this summer as the U.S. ethanol industry can’t keep up with demand for fuel-grade alcohol that can be mixed with gasoline.

Ethanol imports could probably meet the demand, but it is currently subject to a tariff of 54 cents per gallon.

The ongoing standoff between the United States and Iran, OPEC’s number two oil producer, over Tehran’s nuclear energy ambitions is also putting upward pressure on the crude market. Although Iran has previously stated that it will not use oil as an economic weapon, that could change at any moment. Iran recently officially became a nuclear power plant with its first successful uranium enrichment. So the whole situation in Iran is tense at best.

AccuaWeather predicts that the 2006 hurricane season, which begins June 1 and runs through December 1, will be more active than usual. Given the current fragile state of refining capacity within the United States, potential damage from hurricanes to these facilities this summer could have a dramatic impact on prices.

Due to political instability and increasing violence in Nigeria, oil companies

production of more than 600,000 barrels per day of crude oil was suspended.

Don’t expect a quick fix to these long-term problems in Nigeria. Currently, more than 20 percent of Nigeria’s production is at a standstill following attacks by militants.

The demand for crude oil is increasing at a very fast rate. It is currently growing at 1.75 million barrels per day. Even with Saudi Arabia’s huge crude reserves, the market will not be able to cope without some drastic measures. In addition, water content is increasing in the old supergiant oil fields of Saudi Arabia. Referred to as a water lock, there are rumors that the water content exceeds 50 percent. When you reach 80, most of the game is over. Of course, water outages are considered a state secret in Saudi Arabia for obvious reasons.

Many of the world’s major oil fields are very old and are potentially nearing or past peak production. There are about 120 oil fields in the world, which produce half of the world’s crude oil reserves. The first 14 fields, representing 20 percent of the world’s supply, are over 50 years old. Saudi Arabia, which accounts for a quarter of the world’s total oil reserves, has just five major fields that produce 90 percent of its reserves.

After the invasion of Iraq, it is estimated that this area will produce nearly 5 million barrels of oil in the future. However, plans to improve Iraq’s infrastructure were shelved due to relentless insurgent attacks and the threat of a possible civil war. Although even with a peaceful Iraq, the two oil fields, which in the past provided about 80% of their crude oil production, are in very bad shape.

Crude oil prices recently broke out of a long-term bullish symmetrical triangle trend continuation pattern. For those unfamiliar with technical analysis, this is a very common trend continuation pattern.

All of these points really add up to a potential “perfect storm” for oil prices. Petroleum is used in many products that we buy every day. Some people agree with our predictions and think we just need to turn to alternative fuel sources. It’s a good idea, but it’s logistically impossible to simply stop using oil. So how does this affect the common man? The only way to potentially deal with such potential disasters, like any of the many scenarios, is to be properly prepared. Just driving a hybrid isn’t going to cut it, I’m afraid.

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